The forecast from the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) indicates a warmer-than-usual summer in the Valencian Community, with nighttime temperatures making rest difficult. Current data already reflect this trend, with Valencia accumulating 19 tropical nights before June 24th, just one less than the 2025 record. In Alicante, 15 such nights have been recorded, and Castellón has 11, all high figures in their historical series.
The frequency of this phenomenon has increased dramatically. While in the 1940s about five tropical nights were recorded before San Juan in Valencia, between 2020 and 2026, 98 have already been counted. This year's San Juan night was the second hottest since records began.
For the coming months, Aemet estimates a probability of over 60% that summer temperatures will be above normal values. Regarding precipitation, the probability of above-average rainfall is around 50%, conditioned by the appearance of storms, especially from August onwards.
This forecast follows a very warm and humid spring in the Valencian Community. The average temperature between March and May was 14.7 degrees, 0.8 degrees above the reference period, making it the ninth warmest spring since 1950. Rainfall reached 167 liters per square meter, 16% above average.
April was the fourth warmest in the historical series, and May concluded with a particularly hot and dry second half. June, according to Aemet's estimates, could be the third warmest since records began, surpassed only by those of 2022 and 2025.
A concerning factor is the temperature of the Mediterranean Sea, which during spring has been the highest since at least 1940, with an anomaly of 1.2 degrees above the average. This warming makes it difficult for nighttime temperatures to drop, especially in coastal areas, leading to warmer dawns and fewer hours of thermal relief.
Furthermore, the hydrological year remains humid, with 23% more rainfall than usual, although June is proving very dry and could end up among the five driest Junes since 1950. With this scenario, the Valencian Community is preparing for a summer with persistent heat and tropical nights.
