The upcoming Andalusian elections are presented as a turning point for Spanish politics. The PP's Andalusian strategy of positioning itself as the useful vote against Vox, though risky, could grant them an absolute majority. A favorable result for Moreno Bonilla might mark the end of 'sanchismo', despite the resilience shown by President Pedro Sánchez.
In any case, the focus will shift towards the Comunitat Valenciana, the fourth autonomous community with the most deputies at stake. A PP victory in Andalusia could intensify pressure on the PSOE and give Feijóo a decisive boost for his aspirations to the Moncloa, making the Valencian battle crucial.
Juan Francisco Pérez Llorca, President of the Generalitat, is aware of this situation. If Moreno Bonilla achieves an absolute majority, Llorca might consider advancing Valencian elections, despite having been in office for less than six months. This decision, a 'triple somersault without a net', could have advantages given a PSPV that is struggling to gain momentum and a divided Compromís.
An early election could benefit the PP in the current context, leveraging the potential Andalusian electoral ripple effect and curbing Vox's rise. Furthermore, it would force Feijóo to confirm Llorca as the leader of the PPCV. It would be the first time Valencian regional elections were held independently of other polls, a move Ximo Puig successfully employed by aligning them with the general elections.
Concurrently, the Comunitat Valenciana is experiencing significant teacher mobilization, with 35,000 educators demonstrating for salary and labor improvements. Llorca expresses confidence in reaching an agreement but acknowledges the 'politicization' of the protest, a front that could create new difficulties for the PP. The need to break this 'wave' of protests, which could extend to other public services, leads Llorca to calculate whether advancing elections or waiting for the opportune moment is more advantageous.




